Land of the Lost

[saavedra77]

Every time I get my hopes up about the Middle East, it turns out to be "one step forward, two steps back": For example, Syria withdraws from Lebanon, generating hopes of democratization and a newly independent foreign policy direction for the latter country. And Israel withdraws from Gaza and begins talking about withdrawal from the West Bank. But, of course, Hamas and Hezbollah then pick a fight with Israel, and the next thing you know, Israeli troops are back in Gaza and Israel is for all intents and purposes in a shooting war with in Lebanon.

After the past week's violence, the region seems to be on the verge of reverting to where it was in the 1980s, when civil-war torn Lebanon became a proxy battlefield for Israel, Syria, and Iran.

Comments

[saavedra77.livejournal.com]

Well, there's an ugly thought. I hope to God not. At this point, at any rate, we seem to be in more danger of a repeat of the 1980s than the nineteen-teens--so a potential disaster for the region, but not enough to draw in major powers like the U.S. Then again, the U.S. wasn't engaged in a major occupation of a Middle Eastern country during the 1980s. You have to wonder whether the violence in Lebanon will become entangled with the violence in Iraq, somehow--through ties between Shi'ite militant groups, for example.

[schmallturm.livejournal.com]

My prediction: Israel invades, pushes Hezbollah back 50 miles or so, fights a guerrilla war for several years, retreats, Hezbollah moves back, fires some rockets, repeat...

[schmallturm.livejournal.com]

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say Israel is in a shooting war "in Lebanon"? Lebanon as a state doesn't seem to exist, which is part of the problem.

And Lebanon was in civil war long before the Israeli invasion in '83, it started in the 70's.

[saavedra77.livejournal.com]

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say Israel is in a shooting war "in Lebanon"?

Lebanese civilians who find themselves in the path of Israeli fire might disagree. I doubt that the experience is very different, for them.

Lebanon as a state doesn't seem to exist, which is part of the problem.

I think that Lebanon's inability to monopolize military force within its own borders is the heart of the problem, as Hezbollah's private army enables them to conduct their own foreign policy--indeed, war--without the consent of other members of the government.

And Lebanon was in civil war long before the Israeli invasion in '83, it started in the 70's.

Indeed, I misspoke: But the possibility of renewed civil war seems very real, right now--particularly if the Lebanese government seeks to challenge or thwart Hezbollah.

[schmallturm.livejournal.com]

Israel is not fighting the Lebanese state but rather Hezbollah. They are fighting "in Lebanon". It's not just a quibble. Hezbollah doesn't even seem to be a deniable cats-paw of the Lebanese government. They are a cats-paw of Iran and Syria. The first time the Israelis invaded they were fighting the PLO in Lebanon. The Lebanese army was noticeable by its absence.

If you read of an identifiable group of people in Lebanon who feel they are represented by the Lebanese state and are willing to fight for it let me know. I don't believe such people exist.

[morganminstrel.livejournal.com]

It's also worth noting that there are a large number of civillians in Northern Israel who are being fired on and having their homes destroyed by Hezbollah as well. I heard an interview on NPR earlier today with a Lebanese-American professor who is trapped in the country, having gone there to research a book, and he made the point very strongly that civillians on both sides (and there are folks in S. Lebanon who aren't actually connected to Hezbollah) are the ones getting the shaft, regardless of where they live and whose side they might be on.

[saavedra77.livejournal.com]

Good point.