Notice me very carefully phrasing things as if Obama winning the nomination were a foregone conclusion.
Mmm-hmm: My expectations for the fall campaign would be a whole lot more pessimistic all around, if we assume that HRC turns out to be the nominee. On that scenario, I'd expect a close election in which both the left and right will be unhappy with the major party candidates but McCain will have an advantage over Clinton with independents. Clinton may not be able to overcome that advantage in any case, but Nader's presence would certainly makeher situation more difficult, creating another option both for progressive and independent voters.
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Date: 2008-02-25 09:51 pm (UTC)Mmm-hmm: My expectations for the fall campaign would be a whole lot more pessimistic all around, if we assume that HRC turns out to be the nominee. On that scenario, I'd expect a close election in which both the left and right will be unhappy with the major party candidates but McCain will have an advantage over Clinton with independents. Clinton may not be able to overcome that advantage in any case, but Nader's presence would certainly makeher situation more difficult, creating another option both for progressive and independent voters.